M$ 872 volume

    Will Elon Musk take Twitter private by Aug 1 2022?

    24%
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    M$ 918 volume

    Will Austin Chen get a girlfriend at any point in 2022?

    71%
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    M$ 400 volume

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    55%
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    M$ 13,367 volume

    Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

    23%
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    M$ 1,246 volume

    US Presidency 2024

    M$ 151 volume

    How do you decide how much to bet on a Manifold market ?

    M$ 304 volume

    Will AI have a sudden trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2023?

    13%
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    M$ 1,034 volume

    Who will win the 2022 Fields medals?

    M$ 3,505 volume

    Will I update towards a more positive view of auto-scientific-literature-review site Consensus in the next six months?

    48%
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    M$ 3,569 volume

    How many first-year undergraduate applicants will be accepted from Caltech's waitlist for the Class of 2026 (i.e. freshmen entering in Fall 2022)?

    M$ 481 volume

    Who will win the NBA Finals championship in 2022?

    M$ 4,652 volume

    Will I be pregnant before I turn 34?

    22%
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    M$ 150 volume

    Will Amazon have a higher market cap at the end of 2022 than at the beginning?

    83%
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    M$ 3,393 volume

    Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024?

    39%
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    M$ 1,228 volume

    Will any other country openly join Russia - Ukraine conflict in March or April 2022?

    3%
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    M$ 90,686 volume

    Who will be the administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server on January 1, 2023?

    M$ 527 volume

    Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by May 2022, conditional on it not falling by April, 2022?

    1.0%
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    M$ 355 volume

    Will Starship reach reach orbit by May 31st?

    18%
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    M$ 217 volume

    Will Bongbong Marcos will be elected president of the Philippines?

    83%
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    M$ 303 volume

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    73%
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    M$ 421 volume

    Will Elon Musk own more than 90% of Twitter before June 1st?

    10%
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    M$ 2,604 volume

    Will Stephen Breyer retire from the Supreme Court in 2022?

    96%
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    M$ 83 volume

    Will I agree that Manifold's comments should be free?

    54%
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    M$ 2,575 volume

    Will Manifold Markets allow you to bet in terms of probabilities instead of M$ amounts before 2022-05-01?

    20%
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    M$ 391 volume

    Will the FTX Future Fund decide to fund Manifold for Good?

    19%
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    M$ 2,761 volume

    Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?

    98%
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    M$ 385 volume

    Will I donate $10 to GiveWell in April

    36%
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    M$ 2,032 volume

    Will Elon Musk buy Twitter this year?

    31%
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    M$ 833 volume

    Will Reddit file an S-1 before May 1st, 2022?

    15%
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    M$ 12,583 volume

    Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, would Russian troops enter Kyiv?

    40%
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    M$ 160 volume

    Will the Japanese Yen (JPY) weaken beyond its lowest 21st century level against the US dollar (USD) by June 1, 2022?

    47%
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    M$ 1,432 volume

    Mantic will airdrop crypto to early users by June 30, 2022

    34%
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    M$ 676 volume

    Will Manifold allow me to select a target probability when buying shares in a market by 5/15?

    61%
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    M$ 62 volume

    Will I be able to make bets without using the keyboard on Manifold?

    71%
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    M$ 43 volume

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    39%
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    M$ 291 volume

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    62%
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    M$ 250 volume

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    16%
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    M$ 986 volume

    Which team will win the NBA Finals 2022?

    M$ 709 volume

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    49%
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    M$ 80,007 volume

    Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

    7%
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    M$ 217 volume

    Will Manifold auction off the top Market(s) you see when you log in?

    57%
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    M$ 210 volume

    if water can float in air (in clouds) and I can float in water, why can't I float in air?

    M$ 810 volume

    Will I finish "Gödel, Escher, Bach" by 2023?

    54%
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    M$ 2,043 volume

    Will Mariupol fall by May?

    66%
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    M$ 653 volume

    Will President Biden resign before the end of 2022.

    8%
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    M$ 41 volume

    Will Liverpool win the English Premier League?

    38%
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    M$ 30 volume

    Will Liverpool FC win the quadruple this year?

    18%
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    M$ 134 volume

    When will Finland join NATO?

    M$ 305 volume

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    54%
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    M$ 22 volume

    Will Ruth meet her goal of having full drafts of 3 papers done by end of April?

    41%
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    M$ 406 volume

    Market resolution is YES. But.... Undox will not resolve it.

    93%
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    M$ 1,401 volume

    30. Will masks still be required on US domestic flights by the end of 2022?

    5%
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    M$ 325 volume

    Will Russia conduct a nuclear test during 2022?

    14%
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    M$ 559 volume

    How will market creation costs work in a month?

    M$ 281 volume

    Why is Asmodia thinking implausibly quickly?

    M$ 61 volume

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    41%
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    M$ 804 volume

    Will Sweden be an official member of NATO by 2025?

    75%
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    M$ 1,546 volume

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    23%
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    M$ 20 volume

    Will Chen Ning-Yang become a centenarian?

    67%
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    M$ 541 volume

    Communal Game: Can the dog get the bone?

    71%
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    M$ 138 volume

    Will Manifold's comments still be ordered newest-first by market close?

    66%
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    M$ 106 volume

    Who will win Super Bowl LVII?

    M$ 15 volume

    Will blockchain tech find a killer app in 2023?

    11%
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    M$ 253 volume

    Will there be a recession in the US within the next 12 months?

    49%
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    M$ 6,456 volume

    Will the US make daylight savings time permanent in 2023?

    29%
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    M$ 1,150 volume

    Will this market have >2k volume by May 1st?

    96%
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    M$ 541 volume

    What will be the next NATO member state?

    M$ 39 volume

    Will I extend my stay in EA Bahamas?

    36%
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    M$ 32 volume

    Will Twitter stock cross $54.20 before September 1st, 2022

    50%
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    M$ 350 volume

    Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 5 years) involving North Korea in 2022?

    36%
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    M$ 140 volume

    Will Elon Musk smoke weed again before 4:20pm 4/20/2024

    18%
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    M$ 146 volume

    Will Manifold Markets implement a "Most changed" sorting option for trades before July 1?

    80%
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    M$ 10 volume

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    76%
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    M$ 10 volume

    By April 2023, will China approve cultivated meat for human consumption?

    53%
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    M$ 1,907 volume

    Will Emmanuel Macron will be reelected president of France?

    90%
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    Will Keltham be outside the Forbiddance by the end of the current thread?

    22%
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    M$ 833 volume

    Will Democrats maintain control of the House in the 2022 midterms?

    14%
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    M$ 18 volume

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    48%
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    M$ 13,373 volume

    Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022?

    7%
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    M$ 2,166 volume

    Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1?

    93%
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    M$ 540 volume

    Will Manifold Markets become open-source?

    83%
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    M$ 213 volume

    Who will the next leader of the UK Conservative party after Boris Johnson be?

    M$ 167 volume

    Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

    35%
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    M$ 631 volume

    Will I be at least quite happy on August 3, 2022?

    32%
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    M$ 461 volume

    Will Beto O'Rourke be the governor of Texas on Feb 1st, 2023?

    9%
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    M$ 123 volume

    Will Kharkiv fall to Russia during 2022?

    21%
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    M$ 292 volume

    Who will become the next president of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology?

    M$ 1,502 volume

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    48%
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    Will the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022?

    64%
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    M$ 76 volume

    Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria

    87%
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    M$ 397 volume

    Will Manifold make it possible to follow individual traders rather than just communities by the end of April?

    13%
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    M$ 1,306 volume

    Will the Office of the President of Ukraine go from "is" to "was" on Wikipedia before August 1st 2022?

    1.5%
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    M$ 152 volume

    What goverment will form after the next UK general election?

    M$ 226 volume

    Will there be an episode of Hello Internet in 2022?

    32%
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    M$ 17,781 volume

    This question will resolve positively on the 1st of July, 2022

    95%
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    M$ 7,306 volume

    Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?

    1.1%
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    M$ 1,780 volume

    Will the number of applicants to the Atlas Fellowship be greater than 2000?

    97%
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    M$ 4,991 volume

    Will Queen Elizabeth II be alive on May 1st, 2022?

    98%
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    M$ 1,291 volume

    Will Carol Chen still be at cohere.ai by the end of 2024?

    15%
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